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World oil production to peak in three years

HyWeb, 97-07-01: World crude oil production is likely to peak in three years only according to recent studies by Petroconsultants, a swiss based consultancy with a world-wide reputation in mineral oil industry. This is due to principle reasons of depletion of ultimately recoverable reserves. Even if there is enough oil for the next decades, the world is running out of cheap oil. Discoveries of new oil fields is three times less than current production.

This is in sharp contrast to statements by Esso AG on the occasion of the presentation of their recent study „Öldorado ‘97": „Neither we, nor our grandchildren, nor their grandchildren will live to see the end of the oil era." This is the conclusion of Karl-Heinz Schult-Bornemann, head of press and information, Esso, from the study. Esso, nonetheless, mainly argues with a simple extrapolation of the past into the future.

Dr. Eberhard Jochem, Director of the German research institution for systems and innovation research (Fraunhofer Institut für Systemtechnik und Innovationsforschung), essentially confirmed the statements by Petroconsultants on the symposium „Obliged to the future" in Munich, Germany, on the occasion of the 85^th anniversary of Dr. Ludwig Bölkow. He especially warned of naively believing the published figures on known reserves. There are strategic interests, he said, that make it seem advantageous to claim larger reserves than existing.