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Project Description and Objectives: |
The main goal of the investigation is the elaboration of detailed cost structures for different hydrogen production, transportation and distribution paths for the years 1995, 2000 and 2005. The selected H2-production paths are
· biomass gasification in Germany
· importation of renewable hydrogen (from wind and hydro power, photovoltaics, solar thermal power plants)
· utilisation of the spinning reserve of thermal power stations.
· Besides the description of electrolyser technologies, hydrogen liquefaction and shipping to Germany are taken into account.
The distribution paths considered are:
· Distribution in existing low pressure natural gas grids
· Distribution in new local gas grids
· Delivery by truck or rail
· Filling stations.
From these production and distribution paths meaningful combinations of entire hydrogen delivery chains are defined. For these chains, detailed cost analyses are elaborated for the before-mentioned time frames.
A crucial point in the investigation is the fact that the projections for the years 2000 and 2005 are not predictions, but are estimates of technical and economic developments possible in case of high industrial committments for the tapping of this market. This means that under the condition of active industrial participation possible market volumes are estimated considering technical, economic and structural aspects. These market volumes lead to cost reductions via series production, economies of scale, learning curves, technical development and the production in countries of low salaries.
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Preliminary or Final Results: |
Conservative estimates of these factors give the following results:
Hydrogen costs at a filling station in Berlin (taken as representative example) are lowest for biomass derived hydrogen, followed by spinning reserve derived hydrogen and the importation paths (in the order hydro power, wind power, solar thermal, photovoltaics). The costs range from 2.10 DM per liter of diesel equivalent to 13 DM/ldiesel equivalent in 1995 and fall to between 1.05 and 6.72 DM/lde. In these costs no taxes are included.
Hydrogen costs can fall dramatically until the year 2005; in some cases by up to a factor of two almost.
The sea transportation of liquified hydrogen makes an important part of the total costs in the importation paths. This might fall dramatically with higher production volumes.
The cost structures show that in each step of the entire hydrogen delivery chains cost reductions are possible. This of course is due to the fact that a hydrogen energy economy does not yet exist and consequently advances will be highest in the beginning.
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